Wednesday, September 03, 2008

What if evolution was intelligently designed?

For a long time I have been annoyed with both sides in the alleged conflict between evolution and religious faith.

The anti-religion crowd just assumes (based on what, I don't know) that if god existed he would design individual blueprints for each individual species, like some industrial designer designing the latest iPod. They envision a god who sits down at the drawing board and designs an anteater and then goes out and manufactures an anteater based on that design. Once this vision of how god operates is accepted as fact then it becomes possible to disprove the existence of god by finding evidence that each creature is not individually designed and that creatures morph into other creatures through evolution.

For some reason the creationist crowd also buys into this vision of god as industrial designer, so they struggle to disprove evolution and show that god really does manufacture each individual species based on special blueprints he made up for each species?

But what if god just doesn't operate like an corporate industrial designer individually designing each product? What if what god created using intelligent design wasn't individual species, but instead a single entity of earth-life that uses a system of DNA, mutation, sexual reproduction, and death, to flexibly adapt to changing environmental circumstances? What if evolution is not some abstract fundamental principle of the universe, but instead just another adaptive feature of life that god decided would be useful?

We assume that since human inventors throughout history came up with an idea for a gadget, and then designed and made it based on that idea, that god must operate the same way: coming up with ideas for distinct devices and then designing and building them. But what if god takes a more holistic approach? What if god sees herself as more of a strategic CEO and doesn't want to get dragged down into the details of day to day operations? What if rather than designing one of this and one of that, god designed a self-managing life system that takes care of itself 99.99999% of the time without any maintenance or intervention by god? Sure this vision of god as the prime delegator is speculation, but isn't the vision of god as a control freak micro manager who has to design each individual species just as much speculation? How can we know how a god might choose to operate?

Seeing evolution as just another survival feature of plants and animals is easier if you step back and mentally view life from the perspective of passing centuries and not passing minutes. Imagine watching earth as a time lapse movie where each century is a second. At that speed you don't even notice that individual plants and animals are born and then die. Instead all you can see is each species as its own entity. You see the species growing and changing and then fading away. Once you start thinking of whole species as an entity, then their evolution can begin to just look like adaptive behavior. The climate gets colder so the species grows longer fur. A species starts to each the same food, so they change the shape of their jaw so they can eat something else that has less competition. You see species morph their size and characteristics to adapt to changing circumstances, just like an individual chameleon changes its skin color to match its surroundings, or an animal sheds its winter coat in the spring.

If you then speed up the mental time lapse movie of earth's history to 100,000 years per second, then you start to stop noticing the activities of individual species, which can come and go in a flicker, and instead what you observe is how the genus, classes, and orders, morph through speciation to adapt to changes.

Speed up the time lapse movie even faster, and then you lose track of even the individual orders and classes and genuses coming and going, and life can begin to look like a single organism just adapting to its environment by tweaking the characteristics of its cells.

There are a few questions that suggest to me that there is a lot that we don't know about evolution and that we are in no position to declare anything about god based on our understanding of evolution.

One mystery, at least to me, is how and why evolution suddenly shifted gears and became a powerful force after eons of lackluster performance. Evolution on earth was more or less stalled out at very simple single and multicellular organisms for 2 - 3 billion years. If alien scientists studied the first 3 billion years of the history of life on earth, without knowing about the Cambrian explosion and what followed, they would have to conclude that evolution had a very limited capability to adapt organisms, and that life on earth would always be limited to simple and tiny organisms. After a 3 billion year track record of basically stagnant evolution there would be no basis for predicting anything other than more of the same until the end of time. To me this suggests that there is no single unitary thing as evolution. Instead there are different varieties of evolution, some of which are pretty unimpressive, and some of which have incredible performance characteristics. And if there are different varieties of evolution, with different characteristics, maybe it is not a fundamental law of nature, but instead a mechanism, a tool, that can have different qualities and characteristics.

Another mystery to me is why life only appeared once. Everything I have ever read about evolutionary biology in the popular press says that all living things are related, that they all trace back to a single common ancestor organism. But if life was the result of inevitable chemical processes, why didn't it appear multiple times in the earth's 4 billion year history? If the odds of life forming from basic chemicals were even 1 in a billion, then there should still be at least a few completely unrelated forms of life on earth. The fact that primitive life appeared very early in the earth's history suggests that the probability of it occurring are fairly high (otherwise wouldn't it have been 3 billion years or more before even primitive life appeared?), but then once it appeared early on it never happened again.

Another thing that fascinates me is the recent work in the field of evo-devo. One discovery was that the genes used to build a fruit fly body can be found in every living thing; That there are fundamental and identical genetic building-blocks that are used to build every animal. All animals are constructed using the same set of basic genes, with the variation in appearance between animals occurring because other master genes control how much of each building block gene is expressed in each animal. If animals are all using the same genetic toolkit, and the differences between animals are due to tweaking the expression of each fundamental genetic building block, and not due to fundamental differences in genetic basics, then suddenly all animal life starts to look like a single entity that is programmed to adapt to changing circumstances rather than distinct individual entities that all have a completely separate identity. Maybe evolution is not the story of the creation of creatures with independent and distinct identities, but instead the story of a single system made up of linked subsystems that merely adapts as needed to its changing circumstances.

From the evo-devo perspective evolution looks less like a fundamental law of nature, but instead as just a set of tools and methods for adapting to change. When the pupil of an eye changes size in response to different levels of light we don't say that there is some fundamental law of nature that dictates that eyes adjust to variations in light levels. We just say that the eye has a mechanism that allows it to work in both low light and bright light. Maybe evolution is merely a mechanism that allows life to carry on without interruption when conditions change.

And maybe that mechanism for adaptation was intelligently designed. We wouldn't think much of a human inventor who designed something that fails the first time the weather changes. Why would we expect a supernatural inventor to make animals that can only work in one specific set of environmental circumstances, and which have to be manually redesigned and replaced every time things change? Wouldn't an inventor be much more clever to design his invention so it automatically changes its form and functions to adapt to change? Maybe the fact of evolution says nothing at all about whether or not there was an intelligence behind the creation of life on earth.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

When inflation isn't inflation

There has been a lot of talk in the media recently about rising "inflation" due to rising fuel costs and rising food costs. The rising fuel and food costs are attributed in large part, to rising demand from rapidly developing countries like China and India, whose consumers are now starting to eat more like Westerners, and buy and drive cars more like Westerners. Since the rising demand that is causing these price increases is due to legitimate economic growth, and not due to simple expansion of the money supply, is it accurate to call this inflation, and does it make sense to try and fight this "inflation"?

Here is the Merriam Webster definition of inflation:
"2: a continuing rise in the general price level usually attributed to an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services."

This definition of inflation, that links price increases to too much money chasing too few goods, implies that inflation can be fought by bringing the money supply back into balance.

But the present "inflation" is due in part to increased demand from Chinese and Indian consumers finally starting to be able to buy like Westerners. Pulling back the money supply in the USA isn't going to reduce the demand from Chinese and Indian consumers. As far as I can see, there is nothing US authorities like the Fed can do about this "inflation."

Even increasing US wages to "keep up with inflation" can't possibly work since the underlying cause is increased demand from 2nd world nations. Price increases are the market's way of bringing supply and demand back into balance, and this "inflation" is the market's way of saying to US consumers "Chinese and Indians want to drive cars and eat meat too, so now you are going to have to give up some of your driving and meat so they can have some too." If we try to ignore that message by increasing wages to keep up with prices, then the market is going to keep increasing prices until we get the message and start consuming less. In other words, trying to beat this "inflation" with wage increases is a recipe for a hyperinflationary spiral.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Sending even more troops to Iraq right now is a really dumb idea

I can't believe that Bush is now talking about sending more troops to Iraq to bring Baghdad under control.

The problem with this maneuver is that Bush is setting us up for failure. Since Bush has defined success for this troop surge as a stable Baghdad, and said that it is temporary, the insurgents are in a win-win-win situation. To hand Bush a defeat all the insurgents need to do is keep squeezing off a few shots and setting off a few car bombs in Baghdad despite the troop surge. To achieve a stunning victory all the insurgents need to do is marginally increase the casualty rate for US troops during the surge, i.e. make Baghdad a bit more unstable after the surge than it was before. If the troop surge makes it too dangerous for the insurgents to operate in Baghdad, all they have to do to achieve a victory is go home for a few months and wait out the troop surge, and then get back to business as soon as the troop surge is over. Unless the insurgents all get in an orderly line and peaceably surrender in the face of this troop surge there is almost no way it can end well for the US.

To make matters worse, the insurgents know that this troop surge is the key battle of the whole war so they have every incentive to win it. They know that the occupation of Iraq has become unpopular at home and that just one more defeat for the US could completely unravel the occupation. Like the Viet Cong with the Tet Offensive, the insurgents know that if they can just put on a short show of strength right now they can win it all, even if that show of strength leaves them dangerously depleted.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Why its time to cut and run in Iraq

A lot of politicians and commentators seem to accept as gospel that we shouldn't "cut and run" in Iraq.

One reason often given for not pulling out of Iraq now is that it would hurt our international reputation, particularly our credibility with our allies. But you have to ask yourself, exactly what reputation and credibility are we preserving by hanging on in Iraq?

The whole world can see that we didn't really think through the invasion of Iraq before we launched it, and they can also see that in the years since then we have consistently failed to apply enough resources and manpower to stabilize the country. We took on something that was bigger than we expected, and then stubbornly pretended that we had things under control when we didn't.

The reputation we have established so far in Iraq is one of biting off more than we can chew, and then failing to commit the resources the situation demands, and all the while denying we have a problem. Why would we want to preserve this reputation? Does anyone think our performance in Iraq so far reassures our allies in any way? Are our allies saying to each other "After seeing the US stay the course in Iraq we know that if we ever get in trouble we can count on the US to send us less help than is needed, and then deny that we need anything more."

Lets face it. Our performance in Iraq so far, and our continued presence in Iraq, does not in any way reassure our allies about our ability to help and protect them. At the very least, continuing to stay in Iraq reduces our ability to protect our allies by tieing up our military.

I think that if we promptly pull out of Iraq our allies will actually breath a sigh of relief. Not only will our military be freed up so it is available to help them, it also means that we will stop asking them for money and troops to help out in Iraq.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Thoughts on the 2006 Midterm Elections

I still find it hard to believe the Republicans managed to lose the House of Representatives despite the fact that they had gerrymandered all the states to give themselves safe districts, polls show that more American's consider themselves conservative than liberal, they had financial deep pockets, and the Democrats, with all due respect, are pretty disorganized and vague about what they stand for.

It was the Republican's game to lose, and they managed to lose it.

It seems to me that if you had to pick one factor that doomed the Republican's to defeat it was the war in Iraq. Its the only thing that is going really poorly for the US these days.

And I don't think it was just the fact that things were going poorly in Iraq that turned voters off so much as the White House and Republican leadership constantly trying to pretend like things were going great. Insisting that you are actually doing great when you and everyone else knows you are doing terrible doesn't make you look resolute and strong, it just makes you look weak and dumb to boot. Not only are you not strong enough to admit to your failures, you are not smart enough to realize that everyone sees through your pathetic denials.

The name of this blog is ...

I named this blog in honor of David Byrne's song Finite = Alright:

Three-hundred-fifty cities in the world
Just thirty teeth inside of our heads
These are the limits to our experience
It’s scary but it’s alright
And everything is finite

To me this song is about the fact that nothing lasts forever, nothing is permanent, everything changes. I think its important to keep this fact in one's mind at all times to avoid making decisions based on the delusion that it is possible or even desireable to preserve anything forever.

Here are some other restatements of this principle:

But life is just a party
And parties weren't meant 2 last
-Prince, 1999

On a large enough time line, the survival rate for everyone will drop to zero.
-Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club, Chapter 2