Sending even more troops to Iraq right now is a really dumb idea

I can't believe that Bush is now talking about sending more troops to Iraq to bring Baghdad under control.

The problem with this maneuver is that Bush is setting us up for failure. Since Bush has defined success for this troop surge as a stable Baghdad, and said that it is temporary, the insurgents are in a win-win-win situation. To hand Bush a defeat all the insurgents need to do is keep squeezing off a few shots and setting off a few car bombs in Baghdad despite the troop surge. To achieve a stunning victory all the insurgents need to do is marginally increase the casualty rate for US troops during the surge, i.e. make Baghdad a bit more unstable after the surge than it was before. If the troop surge makes it too dangerous for the insurgents to operate in Baghdad, all they have to do to achieve a victory is go home for a few months and wait out the troop surge, and then get back to business as soon as the troop surge is over. Unless the insurgents all get in an orderly line and peaceably surrender in the face of this troop surge there is almost no way it can end well for the US.

To make matters worse, the insurgents know that this troop surge is the key battle of the whole war so they have every incentive to win it. They know that the occupation of Iraq has become unpopular at home and that just one more defeat for the US could completely unravel the occupation. Like the Viet Cong with the Tet Offensive, the insurgents know that if they can just put on a short show of strength right now they can win it all, even if that show of strength leaves them dangerously depleted.